The NFL has introduced a new kickoff rule that could have significant implications for betting. Previously, players on the kicking team could start running downfield as soon as the ball was kicked, but the new rule, inspired by the XFL, requires them to wait until the ball is caught or hits the ground. This change will be in effect for a single-season trial period.
“Before looking at NFL Week 1 odds, fans may want to consider the macro implications for scoring,” said a league official.
With the new kickoff rule, bettors can expect to see more kickoff returns this season. In 2023, kickoff returns hit a historical low of 22%, as many returners opted for fair catches or touchbacks. Only ten kickoff returns went for at least 60 yards throughout the entire season, a stark contrast to the previous decade when such returns were far more common.
“We anticipate that the new rules will lead to an increase in returns and improve starting field position,” explained an NFL spokesperson.
Comparing the NFL to the XFL, data suggests that the receiving team will return 50–60% of kicks under the new rule, similar to the numbers seen in the alternative football league.
During the 2023 XFL season, teams returned kicks 97% of the time, resulting in significantly better field position for the returning teams. The average starting field position on returns was the 29.1-yard line, indicating a potential improvement in NFL field position after kickoff returns.
“The new kickoff rule may lead to a higher average starting field position for NFL drives, potentially resulting in more points scored and a higher likelihood of hitting the Over in games,” said a sports analyst.
Better field position can enhance an offense’s scoring potential, making it more likely for teams to hit the Over in games compared to the Under-filled 2023 season.
In summary, the new kickoff rule in the NFL is expected to bring about more kickoff returns and better starting field position for teams, potentially impacting betting outcomes in the upcoming season. Fans and bettors alike should keep an eye on how these changes influence the scoring dynamics in Week 1 and beyond.
