The Dallas Cowboys have been a model of consistency in the last three years, racking up 12 wins each season to easily surpass expectations. However, despite their impressive track record, I have my doubts about their chances in the upcoming 2024 season. In fact, I am placing a bet on Under 9.5 wins for the Cowboys as part of my NFL picks for the season. Let me break down my reasoning behind this prediction.
Quarterback Dak Prescott had a career year in 2023, finishing second in MVP voting with a stellar 36-9 TD-INT ratio. He also ranked No. 2 among qualified QBs in EPA+CPOE. Despite Prescott’s outstanding performance, the Cowboys offense finished just ninth in DVOA, a metric that adjusts for opponent strength. This discrepancy suggests that Dallas may have benefitted from a favorable schedule in 2023.
Looking at the Cowboys roster and coaching staff, there are some concerns that could impact their performance in the upcoming season. The offensive line, which has been a strength for the team in recent years, is facing some uncertainty with the departure of Tyron Smith and the addition of rookie Tyler Guyton at left tackle. Center Brock Hoffman, an undrafted player with limited experience, is another question mark. Additionally, right tackle Terence Steele struggled last season after a promising campaign in 2022.
While the guard positions are solid with Zack Martin and Tyler Smith, the overall lack of depth along the offensive line is a cause for concern, especially given Prescott’s reliance on a strong supporting cast. The receiving corps lacks depth beyond CeeDee Lamb, who is an A-list superstar, with Brandin Cooks approaching his age-31 season and TE Jake Ferguson as the likely No. 2 option. The running back room is also lacking in talent.
Overall, the lack of depth and potential issues on the offensive line could hinder the Cowboys’ ability to compete at a high level in 2024. Despite their past success, I believe that the under 9.5 wins bet offers value based on the current roster and coaching situation in Dallas. It will be interesting to see how the Cowboys perform in the upcoming season and whether they can overcome these challenges to prove the skeptics wrong.
