In the fast-paced world of NFL betting, identifying regression targets is key to securing a successful wager. These targets, often elusive, are teams that either overperformed or underperformed in the past and are unlikely to repeat their success. The Philadelphia Eagles of last year are a prime example of this phenomenon, starting off with a stunning 10-1 record despite lackluster underlying metrics. This illustrates the value of embracing regression when making NFL picks.
According to the latest NFL betting news and promos, there are multiple methods for pinpointing regression candidates, with point differential and estimated wins by DVOA being popular choices. Though these numbers are dependent on context, they can help forecast which teams are poised to outperform expectations.
Looking ahead to the 2023 season, one team that stands out as a positive regression candidate is the Jacksonville Jaguars. Despite finishing the previous season with a record of 8.9 expected wins in a year marred by injuries to star quarterback Trevor Lawrence, the Jaguars showed promise. While their offense struggled to find its rhythm, the defense held its own, ranking 11th in EPA through the first 12 weeks.
Since then, the Jaguars have made strategic moves to bolster their roster, signing Arik Armstead to strengthen the pass rush and adding Gabe Davis to enhance the passing game. With improved depth on the offensive line, the team’s success hinges on Lawrence’s performance. The young quarterback, who was among the top 10 in Dropback EPA before his injury, has the potential to lead the Jaguars to exceed expectations and secure a playoff berth.
In a competitive AFC landscape where playoff spots are fiercely contested, Jacksonville has a path to postseason success. By capitalizing on potential struggles from other teams in their division and conference, the Jaguars have a clear opportunity to make their mark this season.
While the Jaguars may have faded from the spotlight after being touted as a sleeper contender last year, they shouldn’t be underestimated. With renewed focus and determination, Jacksonville is poised to make a splash and surprise the league with their performance in the upcoming season.
