In the lead-up to NFL Week 2 action, we delve into price discovery, dissecting point spreads, moneyline odds, and totals, all while scouting for the best NFL promos. The showdown between the Packers and the Colts catches the eye, particularly in comparison to my own betting model. Let’s take a deep dive into that matchup, as well as the clash between the Broncos and the Steelers, with more top picks for NFL Week 2 on the horizon.
For those unfamiliar with the term “price discovery,” it’s a crucial aspect of the betting process that kicks off when initial bets are placed on the opening spread or total. The early action sets the tone for adjustments to the odds. Sportsbooks often play the role of “market makers,” responding to shifts in pricing by their competitors. The level of risk they are willing to bear can influence odds across the board.
When looking at the odds for the Packers vs. Colts game, the initial look-ahead line had Green Bay favored by 4.5 points. However, the absence of Jordan Love, who is likely sidelined with a sprained MCL, has swung the spread in favor of Indianapolis at -3.5. But I believe this adjustment is an overreaction.
Despite Love’s injury on the final drive against the Eagles, there is enough data to evaluate his performance in that game. His composite rating of EPA+CPOE ranks him at No. 23 among qualified quarterbacks in Week 1, putting him in the company of players like Justin Herbert and Kirk Cousins. While Love is undoubtedly a solid quarterback, he hasn’t shown that he is worth an eight-point swing in the spread.
Even with Malik Willis stepping in at quarterback, my numbers suggest a closer line of Colts -1/-1.5. Willis previously filled in for the injured Ryan Tannehill in a similar scenario on Nov. 6, 2022, against the Chiefs. In that game, the spread moved from Chiefs -10.5 to -14 throughout the week. Tennessee, behind Derrick Henry, managed to cover the spread against the defending champions.
Similar to how Mike Vrabel guided the Titans in that game, Matt LaFleur of the Packers excels in underdog situations, boasting a 14-3 record (82.3%) ATS as an underdog of three points or more. Look for LaFleur to lean heavily on Josh Jacobs and the Packers’ backfield against a Colts defense that struggled against the run in Week 1.
