As the NFL season kicked off, the New York Jets, Cincinnati Bengals, and Miami Dolphins were all deemed as AFC contenders by my NFL Projection Model, with a 60% chance or higher of making it to the playoffs.
However, the season has not unfolded as expected for these teams. The Jets and Dolphins have struggled to a 2-3 record, while the Bengals find themselves in a similar position to the struggling New England Patriots and Jacksonville Jaguars, sitting at 1-4.
But are these teams out of the playoff race completely? Not necessarily. Despite their rocky start, the lackluster performance of many AFC teams this season leaves the door slightly ajar for at least one of these teams to make a postseason run.
Delving into the analysis, let’s take a closer look at how my model assesses the chances of the Jets, Bengals, and Dolphins making a turnaround:
New York Jets:
The primary reason for optimism surrounding the Jets is their stout defense, one of the best in the league. Paired with a division lacking an elite team, the Jets have the potential to grind out wins with their defensive prowess.
However, concerns arise with quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who is still working his way back to form following an Achilles injury. His performance has been lackluster, ranking near the bottom in various passing metrics. The struggles extend to the run game as well, with the Jets faltering in rushing efficiency.
On the bright side, the Jets have a favorable schedule ahead, facing the fourth-easiest lineup of opponents according to projections. With only five games against teams currently boasting a winning record, the Jets have a chance to climb back into contention.
Miami Dolphins:
Turning our attention to the Dolphins, one key factor in their potential resurgence lies with the expected return of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa by Week 8. While this projection may seem optimistic, it hinges on reports surrounding his recovery and eventual return to the starting lineup.
The current state of the Dolphins does not paint a promising picture for playoff aspirations. However, a fully healthy Tagovailoa leading the charge could significantly shift the team’s trajectory towards a postseason berth.
In conclusion, while the Jets, Bengals, and Dolphins have faced early-season obstacles, the landscape of the AFC leaves room for a turnaround. With key factors at play for each team, the race for an AFC playoff spot remains open, waiting for one of these teams to seize the opportunity and defy preseason expectations.