In the world of American football, the burning question on everyone’s mind is this: Can anyone in the AFC West take down Patrick Mahomes and the reigning champs, the Kansas City Chiefs? Are the Buffalo Bills still the kings of the AFC East? These questions will be answered in less than three weeks on the gridiron.
But while we wait for the action to kick off, let’s dive into the analysis with our NFL Projection Model. With rosters taking shape, it’s time to fire up the model and take a look at the projected win totals for each team in the AFC for the upcoming 2024 season. Today, we focus on the AFC, and we’ll turn our attention to the NFC on Tuesday.
For those unfamiliar, my NFL Projection Model analyzes play-by-play data to create offensive and defensive projections for each team. By simulating every game of the season 100,000 times, we can predict how many wins a team is likely to tally, their chances of making the playoffs, winning their division, and even hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. But for now, we’re purely focused on win totals.
Let’s start in the AFC East, where the Buffalo Bills remain the team to beat. Led by quarterback Josh Allen, the Bills are solid contenders in the East. Despite the Dolphins recently locking in Tua Tagovailoa with a mega-extension, Miami’s offense has struggled against tough opponents. Meanwhile, the New York Jets are banking on a healthy Aaron Rodgers, but questions linger about his age and recent injury. Can the Jets or Dolphins rise to challenge the Bills? My model is placing its bets on Allen and the Bills to maintain their dominance.
Moving on to the AFC North, the spotlight shines on last year’s division champs, the Houston Texans, and their breakout star quarterback C.J. Stroud. While Stroud had a sensational rookie campaign, doubts linger about whether he can replicate his success in his second year, especially with a tougher schedule ahead. The Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans, led by young quarterbacks Anthony Richardson and Will Levis, show promise, but until they can match Stroud’s level of play, the Texans hold the edge as the early favorites in the division.
And finally, in the AFC West, all eyes are on the Kansas City Chiefs. After proving they can dominate the conference without home-field advantage last season, the Chiefs are poised to continue their reign. The road to the Super Bowl runs through Kansas City, and the rest of the AFC must be prepared to face this formidable foe.
As the countdown to the season opener ticks away, the stage is set for an exciting and unpredictable NFL season. Stay tuned as we unravel the mysteries of each division and see which teams will rise to the occasion in the 2024 season.