In a stunning turn of events, Patrick Mahomes finds himself no longer the frontrunner for the NFL MVP award this season. The new favorite? None other than Josh Allen, who has taken the league by storm with his outstanding performances, particularly in the Buffalo Bills’ recent game against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
After starting the season with odds of +800, Allen has exceeded all expectations, leading the league in EPA+CPOE composite, a metric that combines EPA per dropback and completion percentage over expectation. In his game against the Jaguars, Allen achieved a historic feat, becoming the first quarterback in NFL history to complete 75% of his passes, throw for at least four touchdowns, have no turnovers, take no sacks, and lead his team in rushing yards in a single game.
History shows that the NFL MVP typically finishes in the top two in EPA+CPOE, with players like Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes leading the league in those stats during their MVP-winning seasons. However, Allen’s upcoming schedule poses a challenge, with games against tough defenses like Baltimore and Houston on the horizon.
Despite Mahomes’ solid performance and the Chiefs’ undefeated record, his odds for MVP have slightly dropped. Mahomes currently ranks at No.13 in EPA+CPOE, emphasizing Kansas City’s short passing offense and his limited air yards per dropback. If Mahomes hopes to climb back up the MVP ladder, he will need to adjust his playing style to increase his downfield passing efficiency.
While Allen and Mahomes battle it out for MVP supremacy, another contender has emerged in the form of Green Bay Packers’ quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers, coming off a strong performance against the New England Patriots, has seen his odds for MVP shorten from +2500 to a more favorable number.
As the season progresses, the NFL MVP race is heating up, with Allen, Mahomes, and Rodgers all vying for the prestigious award. With each game bringing new challenges and opportunities, football fans around the country eagerly await to see who will emerge victorious in this closely contested battle for MVP honors.
