As the countdown to NFL Week 4 approaches kickoff, I will delve into the world of price discovery and handicap point spreads, moneyline odds, and totals, all while scouting for the top NFL promos. The matchup between the 0-3 Jaguars and the 2-1 Texans has caught my eye, standing out in comparison to my betting model and projections. Below, I will provide my analysis on my top picks for NFL Week 4, with updates to follow as soon as they are available in my account.
For those readers who may be unfamiliar with the term “price discovery,” allow me to explain. This process begins when bets are placed on the opening spread or total, with early action used to adjust the numbers. Sportsbooks, acting as market makers, may adjust their pricing based on the actions of their competitors. A competitor’s repositioning can trigger a cascade effect, leading to changes in odds at other sportsbooks.
In the case of the Texans vs. Jaguars matchup, the look-ahead line had the Texans favored by -4.5 points before Monday Night Football. However, after the Jaguars were trounced by the Bills, the spread rose to -7 points.
After a successful Week 2 of NFL betting, I hit a roadblock in Week 3. My worst pick was on the Jaguars, who fell short of covering the +5.5 spread. Despite this setback, I am willing to take a gamble on Jacksonville at their lowest market value in what is a crucial divisional matchup.
There is no denying that Trevor Lawrence has struggled in the 2024 season. Among quarterbacks with at least 35 attempts, Lawrence has the highest percentage of first-read throws, but his completion rate is below average.
However, the Jaguars have yet to find themselves in a favorable game situation since the start of the season. There is hope that Travis Etienne and the rest of Jacksonville’s backfield may benefit from a shift in momentum, as the Texans’ defense ranks in the top 10 for Expected Points Added per carry allowed.
Despite the Jaguars’ defensive injuries, their heavy usage of Cover 1 defense, the highest in the league, could pose a challenge for C.J. Stroud. Stroud’s accuracy against man coverage ranks in the bottom 20th percentile among qualified quarterbacks.
Considering that the Texans’ passing game has struggled against zone-centric defenses, ranking among the bottom five in success rate, it is doubtful that their offense will turn things around on Sunday.
