In this edition of my weekly column, I aim to sift through the statistical noise and data to pinpoint the key stats that should guide NFL spread bets for Week 4. This time around, all eyes are on the anticipated NFC South showdown between the New Orleans Saints and the Atlanta Falcons in Atlanta. As always, my focus remains on tail outcomes, which present a challenge for sports betting platforms to accurately price.
The prevailing narrative surrounding the Saints has resembled a rollercoaster ride of stock market volatility. They began the season with little fanfare, then delivered two impressive victories that led to a surge in market expectations, only to experience a dip after a Week 3 loss to the Eagles.
However, football is inherently unpredictable, with each game representing just a snapshot in a larger picture. It’s essential to consider the broader sample to gain a more comprehensive view of potential outcomes. It should come as no surprise that the Saints won’t be scoring 40 points in every game.
To truly assess the current state of the team and make informed projections for the future, we must delve into the more extended data trends. While this data comes with its limitations due to a small sample size, it remains our best tool for analysis.
After factoring in home-field advantage, the market suggests that these teams are evenly matched on a neutral field. But is this assessment justified? In the latest NFL power rankings from TheLines.com, the Saints ranked 11th while the Falcons trailed at 15th. Our staff rankings appear to differ from the prevailing market sentiment.
Thanks to insights from Ben Baldwin’s charts, we can observe that, through three games, the Saints and Falcons occupy distinct tiers in terms of production. When evaluating the EPA per play metric, the Saints trail only the Bills in their combined offensive and defensive prowess.
While EPA can be swayed by turnovers and big plays in a small sample size, it’s evident that the Saints have outperformed the Falcons in various efficiency metrics. The matchup analysis reinforces the notion that the Saints are likely to excel offensively.
In examining how teams handle quick pressure plays, defined as pressure within 2.5 seconds, it becomes apparent that the Saints are poised for success. Matched up against the Falcons, there is little indication that the Saints will struggle to move the ball effectively.
In essence, as we gear up for this NFC South clash, the data paints a compelling picture of the Saints’ strengths and potential advantages over their divisional rivals. This contest promises to be a thrilling spectacle with playoff implications on the line.
